Casaya is Rockin' and Rollin'

Survivor and AI were both on last night at the same
time so I spent that hour switching back and forth
trying not to miss anything critical. AI is easier to
miss because I only need to see Ryan's "Hey, you, you're
gone." Four times. Next week just once.

Anyhow, that Casaya tribe, which I thought was stupid
and weak when they first formed, has turned into a
powerhouse. They are fucking unbelievable. They win
challenge after challenge and are now up in members 6
to 4, which may spell the end of LaMina (except for
Terry, who has the immunity idol from Exile Island).
Cerie, my favorite, is incredibly lucky to be on that
particular team and to be still in the game.

Who would have thought that any team with Shane on it
could make such brilliant decisions? First, they sent
Terry to Exile Island, knowing that he held the
tribe together and they would flounder a bit without
him, which they did. Then, when they had another
chance to send someone to EI, they sent Terry again,
to lessen the number of tribe members on LaMina who
have an opportunity to find the immunity idol. THEN,
last night, when Casaya won YET AGAIN, they sent Sally
to EI, accurately predicting that she would be up for
eviction that night at tribal council and the four
boys would be tight going into the merge - that's
Terry, Astronaut Dan, Austin and Nick. Wicked
brilliant - it seems like an obvious choice but,
believe me, Survivor teams are not historically-known
to make the best choices at crucial times, so I'm so
happy they're playing the game with strategy and
making smart choices.

By sending Sally to EI they forced the men to get rid
of one of themselves, and they had to have known that
the team was aligned two to two (two members from old
teams: Terry/Dan vs Austin/Nick). That Terry caved
and voted with Austin and Nick to oust Dan did not
necessarily surprise me even though they had a tight
alliance - and, if Dan was going to the jury Terry
probably wouldn't have made that choice, but it was
relatively safe because Dan will have no decision in
the outcome. It DOES, however, show that Terry may
not be the most loyal person to have in an alliance,
which may hurt him post-merge. BUT he still has the
EI immunity idol so I think he's feeling relatively
safe even if his disloyalty to Dan backfires.

Personally, in his place, I probably would have cast a
throw-away vote, like Shane did last week when he held
to his alliance with Bobby and did not vote with the
group, and voted for Aras instead - basically threw
away his vote and maintained his loyalty to Bobby by
not voting for him. I know that Dan would have felt a
lot better if Terry had done that, and Terry could
still maintain his facade of loyalty to his alliance
with Dan. I'm sure Terry was afraid of a tie-breaker,
though, which could have gone against him, BUT he
still had the immunity idol, so even if a tie-breaker
had gone against him he would not be ousted, it would
have been Austin or Nick (or Dan). Anyway, I think
Terry's playing the "game", but that maneuver may hurt
him down the road.

I was sorry to see Dan go, but all else aside, he
really is the weak member of the LaMina tribe. Not
that the others have played so great - they've lost a lot
of reward and immunity challenges.

It looks like next week one tribe gets to raid the
other. I'd take the outhouse and the Charmin.
They'll probably go for something sensible like
blankets and tarps.

My current predictions for Final 2, which could change weekly:

Terry and Sally

He has the advantage of the immunity idol and she's been playing brilliantly.